Key Takeaways
- Kalshi's midterm accuracy claim: Kalshi says candidates its traders favored won 479 of 487 midterm races resolved by 6 a.m. ET on Nov. 4, 2026, or 98%.
- What it counts: The 487 races include 360 House races, 33 Senate races and 94 state offices such as governor, attorney general and secretary of state.
- Misses: Kalshi's favorites lost eight races. DeFi Rate counted misses in South Carolina's Senate race and two Texas statewide races.
- Pushback: Nate Silver wrote that the better election models were more confident than the markets and got there more quickly.
Kalshi says the candidates its traders favored won 479 of 487 midterm races resolved by 6 a.m. ET on Nov. 4, 2026, a 98% hit rate, and that trading on its 2026 midterm markets topped $2.5 billion. "The markets beat the polls and the models," Kalshi wrote on X. Polling expert Nate Silver disputed who deserves the credit.
What Kalshi's 479 of 487 Midterm Races Include
Kalshi's recap table counts wins for the favorite in 356 of 360 House races, 32 of 33 Senate races and 33 of 34 governor races. It adds 26 of 27 attorney general races, 9 of 10 lieutenant governor races and 23 of 23 secretary of state races. Those state offices make up 94 of the 487 races, about one in five.
The tally covers only races resolved by 6 a.m. ET on Nov. 4. Kalshi noted that several key races, including the Alaska and Mississippi Senate races, were still unresolved. Its table also prints 95% for the House, 94% for the Senate and 94% for governors, though its own fractions work out to about 98.9%, 97.0% and 97.1%. The combined line, 479 of 487, does round to 98%.
Before polls opened, Kalshi gave Democrats a 78% chance of winning the Senate and a 94% chance of taking the House, and both outcomes occurred, DeFi Rate reported. Kalshi says markets for control of the House hit a 99% likelihood at 8:10 p.m. ET on election night and markets for Senate control passed 99% at 9:00 p.m. ET. Its midterm trading volume surpassed $2.5 billion, compared with $1.3 billion for the 2024 election cycle.
Where Kalshi's Midterm Favorites Lost
Annie Andrews defeated Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina after traders continued favoring the Republican, DeFi Rate reported. In Texas, Gina Hinojosa unseated Gov. Greg Abbott, while Vikki Goodwin defeated Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. Graham was at 72% in a DeFi Rate snapshot a week before Election Day, and Andrews won with approximately 51.1% against Graham's 46.7%.
DeFi Rate also noted the spread inside the hits: Iowa's Josh Turek won at 53%, almost a coin flip, while Jon Ossoff in Georgia and Roy Cooper in North Carolina were 97% favorites. On the speed of election-night prices, the site was blunt. "That is potentially useful information aggregation, but it is a different test from forecasting an outcome before anyone starts counting ballots."
Nate Silver and Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour Dispute the Credit
Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour framed the result in a post on X. "Last night, the power to decide what America sees changed hands," Mansour wrote, according to Mediaite. Silver answered that the polls and models provided the direction. "But the better election models were more confident about the outcome than the markets and got there more quickly," Silver wrote.
Polymarket published its own tally. Its eve-of-election favorites won 419 of 426 settled markets, or 98.4%, with 78 more awaiting settlement, TokenPost reported. TokenPost cautioned that the two tallies cover different contests and are not directly comparable. Prediction market trading reached $123.3 billion in October, with Kalshi accounting for about 80%. WYDE covered the pre-election odds and what a Democratic Congress could mean for crypto on Oct. 30.
People Also Ask
How accurate was Kalshi in the 2026 midterms?
Kalshi says the candidates its traders favored won 479 of 487 midterm races resolved by 6 a.m. ET on Nov. 4, 2026, or 98%. The Kalshi count includes 360 House races, 33 Senate races and 94 state offices, and leaves out races still unresolved at that time.
Which races did Kalshi get wrong in the 2026 midterms?
Kalshi's favorites lost eight of 487 resolved races, according to Kalshi's table: four House races and one race each for Senate, governor, attorney general and lieutenant governor. DeFi Rate reported misses in the South Carolina Senate race and in the Texas races for governor and lieutenant governor.
Did prediction markets beat the polls in the 2026 midterms?
Kalshi says its markets beat the polls and the models. Nate Silver disputed that, writing that the better election models were more confident about the outcome than the markets and got there more quickly.
Sources: Kalshi News, Kalshi on X, DeFi Rate, Mediaite, TokenPost.