Key Takeaways
Mark Zuckerberg directed Meta to build a standalone prediction markets app, codenamed Arena, to rival Polymarket and Kalshi, the New York Times reported.
Arena will start points-based with no real-money betting, though Meta has not ruled out real-money wagering later.
Prediction-market betting hit a record near $30 billion last month, up 588% from a year earlier.
Meta is building a standalone prediction markets app, codenamed Arena, to compete with Polymarket and Kalshi, the New York Times reported on June 23, 2026. CEO Mark Zuckerberg ordered a small team to build it, and the company describes the effort as experimental but a top priority.
Arena would sit outside Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, though those apps could funnel users to it. The first version works like a game. Users earn points for correct predictions rather than betting cash, which keeps Arena off regulated gambling rails for now. Meta has not ruled out real-money wagering later, and has not said whether Arena will ship at all, according to NYT reporters Mike Isaac and David Yaffe-Bellany. The push comes as growth inside Meta's core feeds slows and the company tests standalone experiments, including a separate AI-photos app.
The prize Meta is chasing is scale. The company counts more than 3.56 billion daily users across its apps, a distribution engine no prediction-market startup can match. The timing tracks a boom, as the total value of bets on prediction-market apps hit a record near $30 billion last month, up 588% from a year earlier, TechCrunch reported.
Prediction markets have moved from a crypto-native niche, where Polymarket runs on blockchain rails, toward the mainstream, with Kalshi operating as a federally regulated exchange. Meta's entry would put the format in front of a consumer audience larger than either. Critics, including some technologists, warn the apps can blur into gambling, and much of Kalshi's volume is sports betting.
The move fits a pattern of incumbents reaching for crypto-native rails, the same logic visible when Charles Schwab opened spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading to its $12.2 trillion platform and when the NYSE's owner teamed with OKX to tokenize stocks. None of this is new. What is new is a platform with 3.56 billion users deciding prediction markets are worth a standalone app.
People Also Ask
What is Meta's Arena app?
Arena is a standalone prediction markets app Meta is building that lets users predict the outcomes of events. It starts points-based, without real-money betting.
How is Arena different from Polymarket and Kalshi?
Polymarket runs on crypto rails and Kalshi is a regulated exchange that takes real-money bets. Arena begins as a points-based game and would reach Meta's 3.56 billion daily users.
Will Meta's prediction market use real money?
Not at launch. Meta has not ruled out real-money wagering in the future, but the initial version keeps users off regulated gambling rails.
How big are prediction markets in 2026?
Betting on prediction-market apps hit a record near $30 billion last month, up 588% from a year earlier.